The Loosh Spot

"All you have in life is your truth." -Britney Spears

January 03, 2005

Vindication for the Big Ten

The College Football Bowl Season has been great thus far, my precious Wolverines losing a thriller to Texas in the Rose Bowl to cap a great day of intriguing matchups and competitive games on New Years (I'm pretending the pseudo-BCS bowl involving Utah and Pitt never happened later that night). The National Championship promises to be a doozy. As a perpetual proponent of the thesis that the middle of the country is far undervalued, however, I must point out one clear lesson of the College Football postseason--The Big Ten is far better than people think.

There is a tangible way to measure expectations--gambler's wallets. And Vegas didn't think much of the Big Ten. Every single team save Purdue entered its bowl game an underdog.

  • Ohio State was a 7 point underdog against Oklahoma State
  • Minnesota was a 2-3 point underdog against Alabama
  • Wisconsin was a 7-8 point underdog against Georgia
  • Iowa was a 7 point underdog against LSU
  • Michigan was a 6-7 poing underdog against Texas

For those unfamiliar with spreads, 7 points is not small. It means the game has a decisive favorite. 5 of 6 Big Ten bowl teams were considered underdogs, 4 of those being significant underdogs. Let's revisit the matchups not that they've been played.

  • Ohio State slaughtered OK State, 33-7
  • Minnesota beat Alabama much more convincingly than the game's 20-16 score suggests
  • Wisconsin narrowly lost to a Georgia team many picked to win the National title, 21-24
  • Iowa stunned defending National Champ LSU 30-25
  • Michigan lost to BCS #4 Texas 37-38 on a game-winning field goal

All 5 exceeded expectations. Only the lone favorite, Purdue, failed to play a great game. That would make the Big Ten 5-1 against the spread (or 5-1 ATS). When your conference percentage ATS is .833% you are UNDERRATED!


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